on politricks, nonsense, etc

P O L I T I C S.   N O N S E N S E.   S N A R K.

22 February 2011

On polls.

No. 1: A We Ask America Poll finding 51.9% of Wisconsin residents oppose The Godwalker's budget-repair bill, with only 43.05% approving.

No. 2: A USA Today/Gallup Poll finding 61% of the national public oppose the drastic measures proposed in The Godwalker's budget-repair bill, with only 33% supporting. 

No. 3: A Rasmussen Reports Poll finding 48% of likely U.S. voters support The Godwalker's budget-repair bill, with only 38% opposing.

Which is not like the other?  A great read from the always excellent Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight:
We’ve noted before that the automated polling firm Rasmussen Reports has had problems with bias in a statistical sense: in the election last fall, its polls overestimated the standing of Republican candidates by roughly 4 percentage points on average.
A somewhat different issue arises today in a poll the firm conducted on the dispute in Wisconsin between Gov. Scott Walker and some of the state’s public-employee unions.
[...]
According to the firm’s statement of question wording, these were the first four questions Rasmussen asked in the poll:
1: How closely have you followed news reports about the Wisconsin governor’s effort to limit collective bargaining rights for most state employees?
2: Does the average public employee in your state earn more than the average private sector worker in your state, less than the average private sector worker in your state, or do they earn about the same amount?
3: Should teachers, firemen and policemen be allowed to go on strike?
4: In the dispute between the governor and the union workers, do you agree more with the governor or the union for teachers and other state employees?
[...]
The issue is clearest with the third question, which asked respondents whether “teachers, firemen and policemen” should be allowed to go on strike. By invoking the prospect of such strikes, which are illegal in many places (especially for the uniformed services) and which many people quite naturally object to, the poll could potentially engender a less sympathetic reaction toward the protesters in Wisconsin. It is widely recognized in the scholarship on the subject, and I have noted before, that earlier questions in a survey can bias the response to later ones by framing an issue in a particular way and by casting one side of the argument in a less favorable light.
The Rasmussen example is more blatant than most.
A polling firm that overestimates nationwide Republicans by four percent cooks a poll to show favour for The Godwalker "staying the course".  Straight to the garbage with you, number three.

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